Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case costs $5.90 on the Steam Market, so one opening is $8.39 with a key. It holds 14 skins from the Vanguard Collection and 65 knives as its rare special items. On average an opening gives back 57¢ per $1.
Steam Market prices, checked November 6 at 12:59 PM UTC
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
3,430 for sale on Steam
- Case on Steam Market
- $5.90
- Key
- $2.49
- One opening
- $8.39
The odds of one opening
- Mil-Spec79.92%
- Restricted15.98%
- Classified3.20%
- Covert0.639%
- Knife0.256%
From Perfect World, Valve's partner in China. StatTrak™ is 1 in 10 on top.
In 100 cases, at least one
- Knife23%
- Covert or better59%
- Classified or better98%
How many cases for a knife
| 50% chance | 271 cases | $2,274 |
| 90% chance | 900 cases | $7,551 |
| 95% chance | 1,170 cases | $9,816 |
| On average | 391 cases | $3,280 |
What's in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case
Every item in a grade is equally likely. Open one for its odds and price in each wear, StatTrak™ included.
Rare special item: knives
0.256% for the grade, 1 in 391. 65 items, 1 in 25,415 each.Covert
0.639% for the grade, 1 in 156. 2 items, 1 in 313 each.Classified
3.20% for the grade, 1 in 31. 3 items, 1 in 94 each.Restricted
15.98% for the grade, 1 in 6. 4 items, 1 in 25 each.Mil-Spec
79.92% for the grade, 1 in 1. 5 items, 1 in 6 each.What you get back per opening
The average Steam Market value of one unboxing, weighted by grade, wear and StatTrak™, against what the opening costs.
On average you lose 43 cents of every dollar, before Steam takes its fee on a sale.
- Average value of what drops
- $4.81
- After Steam's 15% fee if you sell
- $4.19
- One opening costs
- $8.39
- Knife1 in 391, average $40521%
- Covert1 in 156, average $10714%
- Classified1 in 31, average $149%
- Restricted1 in 6, average $7.7026%
- Mil-Spec1 in 1, average $1.7729%
Four in five openings are a Mil-Spec skin worth about $1.77. The average is held up by drops most players never see.
Three ways to a knife
Since October 2025, five Covert skins from one collection trade up into that collection's rare item, a knife or a pair of gloves. Here is what each route costs today.
On average. Half of players need 271 cases or more, and 1 in 10 need more than 900.
- You can't pick which knife
- Plus every skin you unbox on the way
Five of the cheapest Coverts from the Vanguard Collection, from the Steam Market. No key needed.
- You get a random knife from the collection
- Worth $405 on average
The cheapest on the Steam Market today, a Gut Knife | Safari Mesh.
- The only way you choose what you get
- A traded item is under 7-day Trade Protection
Operation Vanguard Weapon Case price history
The daily median sale price on the Steam Community Market since the case could first be sold.
- Today
- $5.73
- Last 30 days
- -8%
- Since its first week
- 424%
- All-time low
- $0.018
- Sold, last 30 days
- 9,682
Every CS2 case, cheapest first
The case price plus a key is what one opening costs. Each case has its own page with its contents, odds and price history.
 Kilowatt CaseJan 2024 | $0.12 | $2.61 | $1,021 | 35¢ per $1 | 687,759 |
 Revolution CaseJan 2023, gloves | $0.19 | $2.68 | $1,048 | 38¢ per $1 | 486,026 |
 Recoil CaseMay 2022, gloves | $0.28 | $2.77 | $1,083 | 42¢ per $1 | 177,139 |
 Snakebite CaseMar 2021, gloves | $0.40 | $2.89 | $1,130 | 56¢ per $1 | 72,673 |
 Fracture CaseJul 2020 | $0.47 | $2.96 | $1,157 | 37¢ per $1 | 157,651 |
 Clutch CaseDec 2017, gloves | $0.53 | $3.02 | $1,181 | 41¢ per $1 | 54,043 |
 Fever CaseFeb 2025 | $0.75 | $3.24 | $1,267 | 43¢ per $1 | 266,293 |
 Gallery CaseJul 2024 | $0.75 | $3.24 | $1,267 | 53¢ per $1 | 50,504 |
 CS20 CaseOct 2019 | $0.97 | $3.46 | $1,353 | 49¢ per $1 | 25,933 |
 Dreams & Nightmares CaseNov 2021 | $1.16 | $3.65 | $1,427 | 42¢ per $1 | 526,951 |
 Danger Zone CaseNov 2018 | $1.30 | $3.79 | $1,482 | 49¢ per $1 | 63,162 |
 Prisma 2 CaseMar 2020 | $1.32 | $3.81 | $1,490 | 55¢ per $1 | 54,709 |
 Prisma CaseMar 2019 | $1.34 | $3.83 | $1,498 | 60¢ per $1 | 48,204 |
 Horizon CaseJun 2018 | $1.78 | $4.27 | $1,670 | 58¢ per $1 | 25,016 |
 Shadow CaseSep 2015 | $1.95 | $4.44 | $1,736 | 55¢ per $1 | 14,384 |
 Falchion CaseApr 2015 | $2.02 | $4.51 | $1,763 | 52¢ per $1 | 13,618 |
 Revolver CaseNov 2015 | $3.29 | $5.78 | $2,260 | 55¢ per $1 | 15,803 |
 Operation Wildfire CaseJan 2016 | $3.51 | $6.00 | $2,346 | 58¢ per $1 | 10,141 |
 Gamma CaseJun 2016 | $3.53 | $6.02 | $2,354 | 57¢ per $1 | 15,715 |
 Gamma 2 CaseAug 2016 | $3.60 | $6.09 | $2,381 | 52¢ per $1 | 21,614 |
 Spectrum 2 CaseSep 2017 | $3.71 | $6.20 | $2,424 | 43¢ per $1 | 29,294 |
 Spectrum CaseMar 2017 | $3.85 | $6.34 | $2,479 | 50¢ per $1 | 17,609 |
 Chroma 3 CaseApr 2016 | $3.86 | $6.35 | $2,483 | 53¢ per $1 | 20,208 |
 Chroma 2 CaseApr 2015 | $4.84 | $7.33 | $2,866 | 51¢ per $1 | 16,491 |
 Operation Phoenix Weapon CaseFeb 2014 | $4.88 | $7.37 | $2,882 | 49¢ per $1 | 11,467 |
 Shattered Web CaseJun 2019 | $4.90 | $7.39 | $2,889 | 49¢ per $1 | 3,589 |
 Chroma CaseJan 2015 | $5.72 | $8.21 | $3,210 | 52¢ per $1 | 6,084 |
 Operation Vanguard Weapon CaseNov 2014 | $5.90 | $8.39 | $3,280 | 57¢ per $1 | 3,430 |
 Operation Broken Fang CaseOct 2020, gloves | $6.60 | $9.09 | $3,554 | 50¢ per $1 | 5,321 |
 Operation Riptide CaseSep 2021 | $8.57 | $11 | $4,324 | 46¢ per $1 | 3,061 |
 Operation Breakout Weapon CaseJun 2014 | $10 | $13 | $4,895 | 43¢ per $1 | 16,717 |
 Huntsman Weapon CaseJun 2014 | $10 | $13 | $4,895 | 45¢ per $1 | 1,513 |
 Glove CaseNov 2016, gloves | $11 | $14 | $5,408 | 52¢ per $1 | 19,847 |
 Winter Offensive Weapon CaseDec 2013 | $12 | $14 | $5,611 | 45¢ per $1 | 976 |
 eSports 2013 Winter CaseJul 2014 | $15 | $17 | $6,710 | 60¢ per $1 | 2,043 |
 eSports 2014 Summer CaseJul 2014 | $15 | $17 | $6,745 | 46¢ per $1 | 1,807 |
 CS:GO Weapon Case 3Sep 2013 | $16 | $19 | $7,390 | 55¢ per $1 | 1,122 |
 CS:GO Weapon Case 2Sep 2013 | $25 | $27 | $10,553 | 50¢ per $1 | 814 |
 Operation Hydra CaseApr 2017, gloves | $35 | $37 | $14,659 | 46¢ per $1 | 744 |
 eSports 2013 CaseJul 2014 | $59 | $62 | $24,121 | 24¢ per $1 | 229 |
 Operation Bravo CaseSep 2013 | $76 | $79 | $30,693 | 25¢ per $1 | 364 |
 CS:GO Weapon CaseSep 2013 | $142 | $144 | $56,421 | 28¢ per $1 | 383 |
Common questions
What are the odds of a knife from the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
0.256%, about 1 in 391 openings, the same as every case. The Operation Vanguard Weapon Case has 65 knives as its rare special items, so any one of them is about 1 in 25,415.
What's in the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case?
14 skins from the Vanguard Collection: 5 Mil-Spec, 4 Restricted, 3 Classified and 2 Covert (AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel and P2000 | Fire Elemental). Its rare special items are 65 knives: Bayonet, Flip Knife, Gut Knife, Karambit and M9 Bayonet.
How much is the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case worth?
$5.90 on the Steam Market today, with 3,430 for sale. It sold for a median $1.09 on November 12, 2014, its first day on the market. One opening costs $8.39 with a $2.49 key.
Is the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case worth opening?
Not for the money. An opening gives back about 57¢ of every dollar in Steam Market value on average, so you lose about 43¢. That is number 6 of 42 cases by return today. Most of the value sits in the 0.9% of openings that are a Covert or better.
When did the Operation Vanguard Weapon Case come out?
November 5, 2014.
Where the numbers come from
The odds are from Perfect World's published table. Each grade is five times as likely as the one above it, and a knife or pair of gloves is 2 for every 5 Coverts. The knife trade-up is in Valve's October 22, 2025 patch notes.
Prices are the lowest current listing on the Steam Community Market. Case prices are read every night, skin, knife and glove prices once a week, and the price history is Steam's own daily median. What is in each case comes from the game's item files.
Valve does not publish wear odds, so the value of a drop uses the float model players have measured, scaled to each skin's float range. Pattern and float premiums, like a Case Hardened Blue Gem, are left out. They can be worth far more than the average.